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2011年6月25日星期六

Govt raises diesel prices to ease subsidy burden (Reuters)

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NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India raised diesel prices about 9 percent on Friday after months of delay, a politically unpopular move that will add to inflationary pressure but also eases the government's subsidy burden and could bolster its image among wary investors.

"This is the only window they have for any cutting of subsidies. By the end of the year they will be in (state) election mode," political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan said.

Since it was first elected in 2004, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government has often refrained from pushing through tough reforms in favour of pleasing its predominantly rural voter base.

Persistently high inflation as well as the government's handling of a spate of corruption scandals has led to what many critics describe as policy paralysis in New Delhi.

With galloping spending and slowing growth, New Delhi must reassure investors fretting over political and bureaucratic delays for major projects that it can run the economy and keep voter support.

Diesel will now cost just over 41 rupees per litre in the capital after the government panel raised prices by a record 3.4 rupees (7.6 U.S. cents) per litre including local taxes. It also raised kerosene and cooking gas prices.

"The inflationary implications of the diesel price hike are unavoidable. Broadly, with inflation currently at around 9 percent, the hike in prices should take the WPI (wholesale price index) into double digits again and keep it there for a while," said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.

The increases, announced by Oil Minister S. Jaipal Reddy, were roughly in line with expectations.

Taken together, they will directly add about 55 basis points to headline inflation, said Yes Bank economist Shubhada Rao in Mumbai, who expects another 25-50 basis points of interest rate increases by the RBI, which has already raised rates 10 times since March 2010 despite the risk to growth.

PRICES AND POLITICS

Diesel accounts for 40 percent of petroleum product demand in India and is the most widely used transport fuel. It powers tractors and irrigation pumps for farmers in one of the world's biggest producers and consumers of grains and sugar.

Lifting prices is politically fraught.

"I am sandwiched between economists on the one hand and populists on the other hand," said Reddy, an advocate of price rises, following the meeting. "Political problems will always be there and economic problems do not wait for solution of so-called political crises."

Since the government agreed in principle to lift fuel costs a year ago, international crude prices have soared 33 percent, swelling the money spent on subsidising fuel prices to a country with 500 million people living in poverty.

However, world oil prices fell 6 percent on Thursday after major consuming countries announced an emergency release of stocks, only the third time ever, and dropped further on Friday.

With inflation in India above 9 percent and domestic fuel costs up nearly 13 percent on the year, raising fuel prices will immediately hit the fractious coalition's core voters among the poor who live on less than the cost of 2 litres of diesel a day.

"This is a completely inhuman gesture on the part of the government to increase prices with food and overall inflation being what it is," Nirmala Sitharaman, a spokeswoman for the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, told Reuters.

Petrol prices, which largely affect more affluent Indians, have gone up about 23 percent since they were freed a year ago.

"This is quite a bold step on their part when the government is getting attacked from all directions," said N.R. Bhanumurthy, economist at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy

"It makes a lot of economic sense. Ultimately, if you want to control inflation, stabilise growth, it is imperative you pass on the hike in international prices," he said.

FISCAL BURDEN

J.P. Morgan this week cut its forecast for benchmark Brent oil for the third quarter to $100 a barrel from $130 but on Friday global crude prices paused from losses.

"As this remains a one-off price hike we do not expect demand to take a major hit," said Praveen Kumar, senior consultant at FACTS Global Energy in Singapore.

The longer-term benefit to the country's finances comes from reducing massive spending on subsidies and boosting revenues for state-run fuel retailers Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp.

Private oil refiners Reliance Industries, owner of the world's biggest refining complex, and Essar Oil could now find it attractive to sell in the local market instead of relying on exports.

Revenue losses for oil companies will shrink to about 1.2 trillion rupees ($26.7 billion) in the current financial year from 1.7 trillion rupees estimated before the hike, Reddy said.

Cutting customs duty on crude and petrol products and reducing excise duty on diesel will result in a total revenue loss to the government of about 490 billion rupees this year.

Ahead of the decision, shares in Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum rose 2.8 percent and 6.1 percent respectively in market that ended 2.9 percent higher.

($1 = 44.955 Rupees)

(Additional reporting by Swati Bhat and Shamik Paul in MUMBAI and C.J. Kuncheria)


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Govt likely to take political plunge, hike diesel prices (Reuters)

在 ServiceModel 客户端配置部分中,找不到引用协定“TranslatorService.LanguageService”的默认终结点元素。这可能是因为未找到应用程序的配置文件,或者是因为客户端元素中找不到与此协定匹配的终结点元素。
在 ServiceModel 客户端配置部分中,找不到引用协定“TranslatorService.LanguageService”的默认终结点元素。这可能是因为未找到应用程序的配置文件,或者是因为客户端元素中找不到与此协定匹配的终结点元素。

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – The government was expected to raise diesel prices on Friday, although a delay in a government meeting to decide on the politically unpopular decision raised questions as to whether or not officials were in full agreement.

Oil prices fell 6 percent on Thursday after major consuming countries announced an emergency release of stocks, pushing benchmark Brent crude to a four-month low and providing a window for the government to raise prices with less pain for consumers.

Since it was first elected in 2004, the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has more often than not refrained from pushing through tough reforms in favour of pleasing its predominantly rural voter base.

It has delayed a decision on increasing diesel and other fuel prices for months, even as its subsidy burden mounts.

Persistently high inflation, currently the highest among major Asian economies, as well as its handling of a spate of corruption scandals has added to the government's reluctance and led to what many critics say is a state of policy paralysis in New Delhi.

"We are working on more options, the final decision will be announced after the meeting," Oil Minister Jaipal Reddy told reporters, adding that the meeting had been rescheduled for 1900 local time (1330 GMT), a delay of 6 hours.

Sources familiar with the matter had said a price rise was likely. The government could also cut taxes and Reddy said more options were being considered.

Reddy told Reuters earlier on Friday the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) planned release of strategic stockpiles would give only temporary respite.

"I cannot speculate on the future trend but in the short run there is no hope. Even if there is a slight increase in production those gains will not be made available to us because of unbridled speculation in the financial markets," he said.

"We don't know whether this (softening in global prices) is a stable trend," he added.

J.P. Morgan cut its forecast for benchmark Brent oil for the third quarter to $100 a barrel from $130 after the IEA move but on Friday global crude prices were already rebounding.

Half of India's population are farmers, but the government needs to cut its massive subsidy bill on cooking gas and diesel in order meet its budget targets.

A year ago, New Delhi freed up petrol prices, which have risen about 23 percent since then, and said it could do the same with diesel. International oil prices are about 39 percent higher over the same period.

For a graphic on India fuel prices vs crude, click http://link.reuters.com/xyv32s

For a graphic on oil prices and IEA stock releases, click http://link.reuters.com/jev32s

PRICE RISES COULD ADD TO INFLATIONARY PRESSURES

With inflation above 9 percent and the domestic fuel price index up nearly 13 percent on the year, a fractious coalition government is wary of alienating its core voter base among India's 500 million poor, who live on less than the cost of 2 litres of diesel a day.

State-run fuel retailers Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp are losing 4.56 billion rupees ($101.4 million) a day on sales of diesel, kerosene and cooking gas at state-set cheaper prices.

"Obviously diesel and LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), which is being considered, will add to inflation, diesel particularly a bit more as compared to petrol and LPG because of transport costs," said Saugata Bhattacharya, an economist at Axis Bank in Mumbai.

A three rupee increase in the price of diesel from current levels of 38 rupees ($0.845) per litre would add 40-45 basis points to wholesale price inflation, according to Yes Bank, which expects annual headline inflation to top 10 percent in August, based in part on expected fuel price hikes.

Shares in Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum were up 2.84 percent and 4.35 percent respectively on Friday, outperforming the broader market.

($1 = 44.955 Indian Rupees)

(Additional reporting by Shamik Paul in Mumbai; Editing by Tony Munroe)


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Govt hikes diesel prices by 3 rupees/litre - sources (Reuters)

在 ServiceModel 客户端配置部分中,找不到引用协定“TranslatorService.LanguageService”的默认终结点元素。这可能是因为未找到应用程序的配置文件,或者是因为客户端元素中找不到与此协定匹配的终结点元素。
在 ServiceModel 客户端配置部分中,找不到引用协定“TranslatorService.LanguageService”的默认终结点元素。这可能是因为未找到应用程序的配置文件,或者是因为客户端元素中找不到与此协定匹配的终结点元素。

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India has raised diesel prices by 3 Indian rupees ($0.07) per litre, two government sources said on Friday after a ministerial panel ended a meeting to decide on the hikes, a move that could stoke inflation that is already at uncomfortable levels.

(Reporting by Nidhi Verma; Editing by Jo Winterbottom)


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