2011年6月25日星期六

Govt raises diesel prices to ease subsidy burden (Reuters)

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NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India raised diesel prices about 9 percent on Friday after months of delay, a politically unpopular move that will add to inflationary pressure but also eases the government's subsidy burden and could bolster its image among wary investors.

"This is the only window they have for any cutting of subsidies. By the end of the year they will be in (state) election mode," political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan said.

Since it was first elected in 2004, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government has often refrained from pushing through tough reforms in favour of pleasing its predominantly rural voter base.

Persistently high inflation as well as the government's handling of a spate of corruption scandals has led to what many critics describe as policy paralysis in New Delhi.

With galloping spending and slowing growth, New Delhi must reassure investors fretting over political and bureaucratic delays for major projects that it can run the economy and keep voter support.

Diesel will now cost just over 41 rupees per litre in the capital after the government panel raised prices by a record 3.4 rupees (7.6 U.S. cents) per litre including local taxes. It also raised kerosene and cooking gas prices.

"The inflationary implications of the diesel price hike are unavoidable. Broadly, with inflation currently at around 9 percent, the hike in prices should take the WPI (wholesale price index) into double digits again and keep it there for a while," said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.

The increases, announced by Oil Minister S. Jaipal Reddy, were roughly in line with expectations.

Taken together, they will directly add about 55 basis points to headline inflation, said Yes Bank economist Shubhada Rao in Mumbai, who expects another 25-50 basis points of interest rate increases by the RBI, which has already raised rates 10 times since March 2010 despite the risk to growth.

PRICES AND POLITICS

Diesel accounts for 40 percent of petroleum product demand in India and is the most widely used transport fuel. It powers tractors and irrigation pumps for farmers in one of the world's biggest producers and consumers of grains and sugar.

Lifting prices is politically fraught.

"I am sandwiched between economists on the one hand and populists on the other hand," said Reddy, an advocate of price rises, following the meeting. "Political problems will always be there and economic problems do not wait for solution of so-called political crises."

Since the government agreed in principle to lift fuel costs a year ago, international crude prices have soared 33 percent, swelling the money spent on subsidising fuel prices to a country with 500 million people living in poverty.

However, world oil prices fell 6 percent on Thursday after major consuming countries announced an emergency release of stocks, only the third time ever, and dropped further on Friday.

With inflation in India above 9 percent and domestic fuel costs up nearly 13 percent on the year, raising fuel prices will immediately hit the fractious coalition's core voters among the poor who live on less than the cost of 2 litres of diesel a day.

"This is a completely inhuman gesture on the part of the government to increase prices with food and overall inflation being what it is," Nirmala Sitharaman, a spokeswoman for the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, told Reuters.

Petrol prices, which largely affect more affluent Indians, have gone up about 23 percent since they were freed a year ago.

"This is quite a bold step on their part when the government is getting attacked from all directions," said N.R. Bhanumurthy, economist at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy

"It makes a lot of economic sense. Ultimately, if you want to control inflation, stabilise growth, it is imperative you pass on the hike in international prices," he said.

FISCAL BURDEN

J.P. Morgan this week cut its forecast for benchmark Brent oil for the third quarter to $100 a barrel from $130 but on Friday global crude prices paused from losses.

"As this remains a one-off price hike we do not expect demand to take a major hit," said Praveen Kumar, senior consultant at FACTS Global Energy in Singapore.

The longer-term benefit to the country's finances comes from reducing massive spending on subsidies and boosting revenues for state-run fuel retailers Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp.

Private oil refiners Reliance Industries, owner of the world's biggest refining complex, and Essar Oil could now find it attractive to sell in the local market instead of relying on exports.

Revenue losses for oil companies will shrink to about 1.2 trillion rupees ($26.7 billion) in the current financial year from 1.7 trillion rupees estimated before the hike, Reddy said.

Cutting customs duty on crude and petrol products and reducing excise duty on diesel will result in a total revenue loss to the government of about 490 billion rupees this year.

Ahead of the decision, shares in Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum rose 2.8 percent and 6.1 percent respectively in market that ended 2.9 percent higher.

($1 = 44.955 Rupees)

(Additional reporting by Swati Bhat and Shamik Paul in MUMBAI and C.J. Kuncheria)


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